First Top 10 finish in a decade (2015 class).
A lot of people wonder what it all takes for a CFB program to win a National Title. There are numerous factors that go into having a successful football program: coaches, facilities, fan-support, geographical location, etc. However, there is one ingredient that stands out above them all: recruiting.
It is impossible to win big in this sport without having the best talent. Sure, we see some Cinderella-type runs every now & again (ASU this year in particular). But the one constant in all of college football is that the teams that recruit the best talent win the big games.
Let’s take a look at the 2025 CFB Playoff Champions the Ohio State Buckeyes. Their national recruiting rankings the past four years are as follows:
- Class of 2024: #4 Nationally
- Class of 2023: #4 Nationally
- Class of 2022: #4 Nationally
- Class of 2021: #2 Nationally
That is four classes stacked in a row with top-5 finishes nationally in HS football recruiting. The other teams that finished ahead of OSU during these years? Alabama & Georgia. Think those programs know anything about winning football games?
Tennessee was wandering in the CFB desert for a long time (10-12 years). During that period, TN rarely finished at the top of the recruiting rankings with the exception of two of Butch Jones’s classes: 2014 (#5 nationally) and 2015 (#4 nationally). Not surprisingly, the 2015 & 2016 seasons were the two best seasons Butch had during his tenure in Knoxville. However, he was unsuccessful in continuing to stack classes and lost the trust of the players and school administrators with some of his on (& off) the field decision-making.
Return to present day. Tennessee just finished the 2024 season with their first CFB playoff appearance, but were blown out by eventual-champion Ohio State. It was a painful game for Vol fans to watch, but it did highlight what it takes to win at a high-level. You have to get the best talent.
December 21st, 2024 on a cold, Columbus night was a wake-up call that UT still needed better talent.
In the era of NIL and the transfer portal, it is becoming easier to quickly flip a roster and upgrade the talent of your team. Just be ready to over-pay for it.
However, my opinion is that successful teams are still built mostly through HS recruiting. They are the foundation to your house, and the transfer portal can be used to decorate (metaphorically speaking). The houses that withstand the elements the longest have the sturdiest foundation.
So enough with my metaphor bullshit. Let’s see where Tennessee has stacked up in their last five recruiting classes under Josh Heupel.
- Class of 2025: #10 Nationally
- Class of 2024: #13 Nationally
- Class of 2023: #12 Nationally
- Class of 2022: #15 Nationally
- Class of 2021: #23 Nationally
There are a lot of different ways you could discuss these results, but I will just hit on the high-level.
*The Class of 2021, while technically a Josh Heupel recruiting class, was inherited after the firing of previous coach, Jeremy Pruitt.
CJH’s classes appear to be getting better, not worse. A common theme we have seen with the carousel of Tennessee coaches prior to CJH was that the first class or two would be their strongest. They would sell a fresh-start and the ability to get immediate playing time on a struggling team. But year after year, each class would continue to get worse (seen most with Dooley & Butch classes).
Heupel’s classes are going the other way. There could be several different factors as to why we are seeing this YOY improvement:
- Longer recruiting relationships have been established as UT keeps continuity with coaches
- The success on the field entices players to want to come play for a winning program,
- A leading NIL collective
- Concentrated effort by school administrators to winning in athletics
But whatever the ingredients are, they appear to be working.
Over the past few years, Heupel has recruited some high-level players. QB Nico Iamaleava was the #1 overall player (Per On3) in the Class of 2023. James Pearce (projected 1st round pick) was the #11 overall player in the Class of 2022. However, Tennessee’s most recent recruiting class includes the highest number of blue-chip talent.
Here are some of the players and On3 rankings for CJH’s most recent 2025 class:
- David Sanders OT: #9 player nationally
- Isaiah Campbell DL: #30 player nationally
- Mariyon Dye Edge: #42 player nationally
- DaSaahn Brame TE: #62 player nationally
- Travis Smith WR: #67 player nationally
There are also nine additional players listed in the top 300 players nationally.
In his 2025 recruiting class, Coach Heupel finished with a “blue-chip” ratio (ratio of 4&5 star players in the class) of 62%.
Why is this important?
Per CBS Sports, every CFB champion since 2011 has had a blue-chip ratio of at least 50%. The last team to win without hitting that number? Cam Newton’s 2010 Auburn Tigers.
With Heupel’s 2025 Class made up of 62% blue chip players, Tennessee’s roster (averaging ratios the past four classes) has a total blue chip ratio of 52%.
But it’s not necessarily that simple. With the transfer portal, players come and players leave. But using this rough estimate, about half of Tennessee’s football roster in 2025 will contain blue-chip players.
Will it be enough to get the Vols over the hump and deeper into a CFB playoff? Only time will tell. But in the meantime, the Vols need to continue stacking top-rated classes if they want a legitimate shot at the National Title.