The Vols season ended on Saturday with a 42-17 drubbing by Ohio State in Columbus, and it proved to be a good barometer for where Tennessee’s football program currently sits.
Good, but not elite.
There is no doubt that Josh Heupel has pulled UT football from the depths of CFB purgatory. Four years ago, the Vols had just wrapped up a 3-7 season and Jeremy Pruitt would go on to be fired “with cause” due to multiple recruiting violations self-reported by the University. Several weeks later, Phillip Fulmer would also be let go, and Donde Plowman would end up making the most important Athletic Director hire in several decades. Danny White at UCF.
Danny was well-regarded as one of the top AD’s in the country, and he was tasked with restoring a football program that had become the laughing stock of the CFB world. He would go on to bring Josh Heupel with him from UCF. A hire that did not garner a lot of excitement from the Volunteer faithful.
What a hire that ended up being.
In 2021 while dealing with NCAA sanctions, CJH brought in an exciting brand of football that showcased yards, points, and a hope that Tennessee could return toward the top of the sport.
I don’t need to provide a history lesson on what Josh Heupel has done during his four years on Rocky Top. It is well-documented. This most recent 2024 season being capped off by another 10-2 regular season record and a berth in the first-ever expanded CFB playoff.
Many fans, myself included, thought that the Vols had a chance (albeit a small one) to win the CFB playoff. Tennessee went undefeated at home, lost a head-scratcher to Arkansas in a close game, and were within one score in Athens until the last few minutes. With Georgia having considerably one of the most talented rosters in America, it seemed the Vols had finally caught up with CFB’s elite.
Saturday night we were proven wrong.
From the very beginning of the OSU game, it was clear that Tennessee did not have the talent to compete with the Buckeyes. They were stronger than the Vols in just about every position, and neutralized what was considered the strengths of this Tennessee team (defensive line and cornerbacks). When the game was finally over, it left a lot of people wondering how that OSU team lost at home to an underwhelming Michigan squad.
Big Picture: Tennessee had a good season and the football program has clawed their way out of the gutter of the sport. However, Ohio State showed there are levels in the sport. Tennessee seems to be in the rung below the elite.
There is only one thing that can be done to compete with the likes of an Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, etc. That is to recruit. You have to recruit at an elite level to win the big game in College Football.
According to 24/7 Sports, every team since 2011 that has won the National Championship has had a “blue-chip” recruit ratio of at least 50%. A blue-chip recruit is a recruit that is ranked by the scouting services as either a four or five star player. In 2024, Tennessee had a 46% blue-chip ratio and Ohio State had a nation’s-best 90% blue-chip ratio.
Auburn was the team in 2010 that appeared to have less than the required 50% or greater blue-chip ratio, but they also had a player named Cam Newton. When you have a generational talent like Cam had quarterback, that allows a team to overcome a lot and a possible overall talent-disparity on the field.
There is a reason that following teams have won CFB championships over the past decade:
- Alabama
- Georgia
- LSU
- Clemson
- Ohio State
It is simply because these teams have finished with multiple top-5 national recruiting classes. Coaching and player development is an important ingredient, but getting the best players appears to be top factor when determining the success of a team.
Here is where Tennessee’s last four recruiting classes have finished nationally:
- Class of 2022: 15th Nationally; 5th in SEC
- Class of 2023: 12th Nationally; 4th in SEC
- Class of 2024: 13th Nationally; 8th in SEC
- Class of 2025: 10th Nationally; 7th in SEC
The Vols are close to breaking into that upper-crust of signing high school talent, but they have yet to reach the top. Now, the transfer portal has become somewhat of an equalizer in helping distribute talent across CFB programs and creating more parity in the sport. But data would suggest that signing elite high-school talent usually wins out in the end.
We should be thankful for the job Josh Heupel and Danny White have done to help bring success back to Rocky Top. However, Josh & Co will need to do whatever they can to make signing top-5 classes a habit if they want to end up hoisting the CFB Championship trophy in the future.
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